Mercedes-Benz Stadium features Week 6 action as the Atlanta Falcons and Michael Penix Jr. take on the Buffalo Bills at 7:15 p.m. ET on Monday. Here is analysis of Penix’s prop bets, stats and trends ahead of this contest to help you make your best bets.

Michael Penix Jr. Prop Lines

• Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills
• Time: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Date: October 13, 2025
• Passing yards prop: Over 225.5 (-112)
• Rushing yards prop: Over 7.5 (-119)

Michael Penix Jr. Stats and Trends

• Penix has passed for 918 yards (229.5 per game), completing 62.4% of his passes, with three TDs and three INTs.
• Monday’s over/under for Penix is 225.5 passing yards. That’s 4.0 fewer yards than his 229.5 average for the season.
• In four matchups this season, Penix has surpassed 225.5 passing yards twice.
• He has thrown for more than his season prop average of 227 yards (by 2.5 yards per game).
• This year, Penix has gone over his passing yards prop total twice.
• Twice in four games this year, he has thrown a touchdown pass, with multiple TD throws one time.
• Penix has added 31 yards on 13 carries and one touchdown, averaging 7.8 yards rushing per game.

Recent Performances vs. the Bills

Falcons Home Splits

• The Falcons’ average points scored (27) and allowed (25) at home are both higher than their overall averages of 19 and 21.5, respectively.
• At home, the Falcons accumulate 396.5 yards per game and give up 277. That’s more than they gain (362.8) and allow (244) overall.
• The Falcons rack up 298 passing yards per game in home games (71.7 more than their overall average), and concede 153 at home (18 more than overall).
• The Falcons rack up 98.5 rushing yards per game at home (38 less than their overall average), and concede 124 at home (15 more than overall).
• At home, the Falcons convert 44.4% of third downs and allow 36.4% to be converted. That’s more than they convert (41.8%) and allow (34.1%) overall.